Can Coco Gauff claim the world number one ranking by 2026? It’s a question that has tennis fans and experts alike buzzing with anticipation. Currently ranked third globally, the two-time Grand Slam champion has yet to reach the pinnacle of the sport, despite coming tantalizingly close with a career-high ranking of second. As the Australian Open looms, Gauff trails world number two Iga Swiatek by 1,905 points and the reigning world number one, Aryna Sabalenka, by a more daunting 4,567 points. But here’s where it gets intriguing: can she bridge this gap and ascend to the top of the WTA rankings by the end of 2026? And this is the part most people miss—her former coach, Brad Gilbert, believes she has a 51.39% chance of achieving this feat next year.
During a recent episode of The Big T Podcast, Gilbert, who knows Gauff’s game inside out, shared his insights. ‘At 21 years old, with three consecutive years at number three in the world, I think there’s a real chance it happens this year,’ he stated confidently. Gilbert even went further, assigning a staggering 97.91% probability that Gauff will become world number one at some point in her career. But here’s the controversial part: while Gilbert is optimistic, he acknowledges that Gauff’s path to the top won’t be a walk in the park.
To illustrate, let’s look at her performance in key tournaments last year. In Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami, Gauff earned a total of just 370 points—far fewer than Sabalenka’s 1,835 and Swiatek’s 1,210 during the same period. Gilbert suggests that improving her results in these events could be pivotal. ‘She’s going to need to make a little bit of hay,’ he noted, emphasizing the need for consistency and stronger performances in the clay-court season.
But is Gilbert’s optimism shared by others? His podcast co-hosts, CoCo Vandeweghe and Danielle Collins, offered their own predictions. Collins gave Gauff a 95% chance of becoming world number one, while Vandeweghe was slightly more cautious at 70%. Vandeweghe’s reasoning? ‘At some point, Sabalenka, Rybakina, and Swiatek will retire, and Coco has age on her side. She’s the youngest of the group, so she’ll last the longest.’ But here’s a thought-provoking question: Is relying on her competitors’ retirements a sustainable strategy, or does Gauff need to step up her game now?
As the 2026 Australian Open kicks off on January 18, Gauff’s journey begins against Uzbekistan’s Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round. The two have met once before, with Gauff securing a straight-sets victory at the 2025 China Open. If she advances, she could face one of her biggest idols, Venus Williams, in the second round—a rematch of their iconic Wimbledon encounter six years ago when a 15-year-old Gauff stunned the tennis world. But here’s where it gets even more challenging: Gauff’s draw is packed with formidable opponents, including Alexandra Eala, Marketa Vondrousova, and Emma Navarro, not to mention potential quarterfinal clashes with the likes of Elina Svitolina or Maria Sakkari.
The real test, however, could come in the semifinals, where Gauff is in the same half as Sabalenka. And should she reach the final, a showdown with Swiatek awaits. Will Gauff rise to the occasion, or will the pressure prove too much? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: her journey to the top will be nothing short of captivating. What do you think? Can Coco Gauff become world number one by 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
