The Streaming Revolution: HBO's Future in the Age of Netflix
The entertainment industry is abuzz with the potential acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix, sparking curiosity about the fate of HBO Max. While Netflix has assured its continued existence as a separate service, the question lingers: what happens to the traditional HBO linear service? The answer may lie in the broader trend of streaming services swallowing up premium cable networks, marking the end of an era.
The Decline of Linear Cable Networks
The transformation of premium cable networks into streaming-only services is already evident. Paramount's Showtime, once a flagship network, has been largely absorbed into the Paramount+ streaming platform, with its remaining linear channel now rebranded as 'Paramount + With Showtime'. The once-vibrant Showtime brand now exists mostly in name only, with its shows promoted as Paramount+ originals.
Similarly, FX, inspired by HBO's success, evolved into a premium brand, attracting creators to basic cable. However, it now exists primarily as a tile on Hulu, with its linear channel scheduling library movies and repeats. The term 'FX' often no longer refers to the linear channel but to the streaming service.
HBO's Linear Dilemma
Even under the Warner Bros. Discovery umbrella, HBO has been downsizing its linear offerings. The closure of multiplex networks like HBO Family, ThrillerMax, MovieMax, and OuterMax reflects a shift away from traditional cable. This trend raises questions about Netflix's approach to HBO's linear service.
Netflix's CEO, Ted Sarandos, has shown no interest in owning or operating linear properties, and the company intentionally excluded the 'Discovery' channels from its Warner Bros. bid. This suggests that Netflix may not be keen on maintaining HBO's linear service, especially if it means keeping customers on the digital platform.
The End of Premium Cable?
The fate of HBO's linear service is intertwined with the broader decline of premium cable. In 2024, HBO averaged just 154,000 primetime viewers, a significant drop from previous years, as viewers migrate to streaming platforms. Netflix's original programming, modeled after HBO, has also outpaced traditional broadcast networks, further challenging the traditional cable model.
If Netflix acquires Warner Bros., HBO would become just another brand on its streaming menu, alongside WWE, NFL, and others. The narrative of Netflix vs. HBO has dominated TV discourse for over a decade, but the streaming giant's acquisition could signal the end of premium cable as we know it.
